GlobalData Revises Global Economic Growth Forecast for 2024 Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty
By Innocent Eneta,
Amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic risks, GlobalData has revised its global economic growth projection for 2024, reflecting cautious optimism as inflationary pressures ease and consumer spending strengthens. In its Q3 2024 update, the leading data and analytics company raised the global growth forecast to 2.52%, a slight increase of 0.05 percentage points from its previous Q2 estimate.
“The slight upward revision in the global growth forecasts for 2024 reflects cautious optimism amid persistent geopolitical tensions,” said Arnab Nath, Associate Project Manager of GlobalData’s Economic Research Team. He noted that resilience in key economies, particularly the United States and the Eurozone, contributed to the improved outlook.
In the Americas, strong consumer spending and rising real incomes have pushed the region’s forecast up by 0.11 percentage points to 2.16%. Europe’s projection also rose by 0.21 percentage points to 1.38%, driven by stable wage growth and recent rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB). According to Nath, “Gradual recoveries in the emerging markets will further bolster the projections.”
However, the outlook for other regions was less positive. The Asia-Pacific forecast dropped by 0.08 percentage points to 2.59%, impacted by China’s economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions. The Middle East and Africa (MEA) region faced an even sharper reduction, with its growth forecast down by 0.25 percentage points to 3.57%, largely due to oil market volatility and shipping disruptions.
GlobalData also forecasts a global inflation decline, expecting rates to drop from 5.8% in 2023 to 4.5% in 2024, with further decreases anticipated through 2025. Consumer and business confidence have rebounded significantly in major economies, suggesting robust spending potential, especially in G20 and G7 countries.
Looking ahead, political shifts in the 2024 election cycle across key regions are expected to have economic consequences, including potential changes in trade policies and market stability. Nath cautioned that “persistent risks from geopolitical tensions may significantly shape the economic outlook for 2024 and 2025.”
Despite the challenges, GlobalData’s forecast points to a steady global recovery, with regional dynamics playing a critical role in shaping the path forward.
