Pessimism about what happens next

There was an English chap in Georgia a few months ago who was attacked in Kutaisi by a Georgian man who took exception to the Englishman having a lip-piercing. It’s not hard to imagine; anything considered ‘LGBT’ is like a red rag to a bull with certain Georgian men (although the victim in question was ironically there with his girlfriend), although I suppose that’s true for the prejudiced brainless all over the world, if perhaps without such a firm ideological bent.

Incidents like this – while awful – are not overly surprising. But what struck me (if you’ll pardon the phrasing) about this particular incident was the way in which the Englishman reported it on social media. He described how he had initially ‘begged’ the man to stop hitting him, then managed to run away, before he was chased down and beaten again, at which point he resumed pleading with the assailant to stop. 

This was all verified later by the local press and law enforcement, and soon the story of the Englishman fleeing from an unprovoked attacker whining to be left alone was beamed across an outraged nation. But what you’re probably thinking by now is that if someone had started bashing you in the face, would you ‘beg them to stop’? I should hope not. Made me ashamed to be British, let me tell you. The correct thing to do is bash them back, as my wife did in London when a girl attacked her on the Tube (Brixton attitude is one thing, but being born in the Soviet Union is quite another). 

But you see, as pathetic as that Englishman doubtless sounds, it isn’t as though the Western world has been much better with Russia over the last fourteen years. Every time Putin has become aggressive, he has gotten away clear away with it – and sanctions demonstrably don’t work. 

I know that I’m treading on risky ground here. Any calls for escalation or retaliation inevitably lead to accusations of careless hawkishness, which are then followed by thunderous denunciations that suggest you don’t know about the world-ending destruction of nuclear war (as if that had escaped anyone’s attention). But something has to be done – or rather, more has to be done. I’m not going to bleat and moan about European and American inactivity, since I’ve done that rather a lot on these glorious pages over the years, so instead focus on what can actually be done from now. 

The Javelin and Stinger missiles have put a dent (and worse) in Russia’s armoured and air forces, but this is not enough. There was a since-deleted promise to deliver 70 fighter aircraft from Europe, which Ukrainians seem to have seized on and are now furious it isn’t going to happen. Well, they do need more planes; in fact, give them more tanks while you’re at it, you don’t need them at the moment. If you’re not going to help them with their war you might as well give them the tools to do it themselves.

Again, yes, I’m fully aware that Europe is sending weapons. Well, send more. And while you’re at it, why not consider getting down and dirty? As things stand, you’re trying to wear a tuxedo at an orgy while Russia is greased up and ready for action. Let’s send in European troops in unmarked uniforms just like the Russians did to Ukraine in 2014 – and while I’m hearing rumours of American private military companies working for the Kyiv government as I write, let’s send more of them. 

I have my own belief that Putin, while looking increasingly unhinged, isn’t going to risk a nuclear exchange. I’m confident that he’s still banking on Western timidity, and so can waggle his atomic stick around with impunity without fear of having a bigger stick slapped in his face. 

With this in mind, it may not be out of the question if Ukraine becomes something of an ‘arena war’. I don’t want to overly compare that lovely country to a boxing ring, but this sort of thing has happened before: the Falklands War did not see combat extend beyond the area of operations, while in Syria both Russia and the US his behind the veil of plausible deniability at the same time as their respective special forces units knocked seven bells out of each other. 

I hadn’t intended to do this, but Europe might need a quick history lesson. When the Sudetenland and Poland were abandoned, nothing good came of it. Regrettably, we are at this juncture again. Passivity and appeasement do not work: nothing Europe has done so far has worked. And as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said (echoing Mikheil Saakashvili, of all people), after Ukraine he will not stop – and I think we’ve had enough naivety from the West, don’t you?