How will the Russian invasion of Ukraine impact Africa?

The first and most tragic impact has been on African students studying in Ukraine, who have been forced to flee the cities overland to seek safety from the fighting. More than 20% of Ukraine’s foreign students are from Africa, with most coming from Morocco, Egypt and Nigeria.

Russian invading forces have been indiscriminately shelling cities and murdering civilians; tragically some casualties from this blitzkrieg have been African students. Others have been unable to fly to safety due to the closure of Ukrainian airspace, and have been forced to find overland routes already crowded with more than one million refugees. Their evacuation was made harrowingly unpleasant by the racial harassment and discrimination they experienced in the panic to find a route to safety.

The second immediate impact will be on trade with Russia and Ukraine, and on African food security. Because of the tough economic sanctions against Russian businesses and banks, trade with Russia in energy and in agricultural products will be blocked. Russia previously sold almost $4 billion of wheat to African grain markets. Countries that have historically traded with Russia for cereal products, like Egypt and Tunisia will need to look elsewhere for supplies. The outlook for Ukrainian exports also looks uncertain due to the ongoing war, and probable disruption of production; Ukraine previously exported almost $3 billion of agricultural goods to Africa.

But there are winners and losers in commerce from the impact of the Russian war. Nigeria, Algeria and Angola, all oil-rich energy producers stand to benefit from Russia’s exclusion from world markets. Ethiopia could in different circumstances potentially take up some of the demand for wheat, but unfortunately, their agricultural production is being disrupted by civil war.

The third impact is in respect of security and defence. Russia has cherry-picked states in Africa controlled by dictators, based upon the mineral resources in those countries and on military interests. Russia has built military alliances with Libya, Mali, Sudan the Central African Republic and Mozambique. 

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may rein in their ambition to extend themselves further in Africa. The Russian military is losing approximately 1,000 soldiers a day in Ukraine and has already called up reservists in Russia to plug the gap in their ongoing offensive. But because of the sanctions against Russia in terms of high technology imports, it is likely that Russia will wish to strengthen their existing relationships with countries like Mali and the Central African Republic (a world leader in the production of cobalt) and to try to forge new relationships with other mineral-rich countries in Africa. A bilateral summit between Russia and the African Union is scheduled for October of this year to be held in Addis Ababa. 

In terms of international diplomatic affairs and foreign policy, Africa has a very important voice, with about 25% of all seats at the General Assembly of the United Nations. The United Nations adopted a resolution calling on Russia to immediately, completely and unconditionally withdraw all of its military forces from the territory of Ukraine within its internationally recognised borders.

Eritrea was the only African country to vote against the resolution which was adopted unanimously with 141 countries voting in favour; a minority of 15 African nations abstained (including those with military ties to Russia). But the majority of African leaders have condemned Russia’s invasion.

The African Union came out with a terse statement calling on Russia to imperatively respect international law, the territorial integrity and the national sovereignty of Ukraine. Ghana and Nigeria condemned the unprovoked Russian invasion. South Africa called for peace and dialogue, and urged the UN to do more to mediate. 

In a powerful and eloquent statement to the Security Council, Ambassador Kimani of Kenya delivered a rebuke to Russia, “Kenya and almost every African country was born by the ending of empire. Our boundaries were not of our own drawing. They were drawn in the distant colonial metropoles of London, Paris and Lisbon, and without regard for the ancient nations that they cleaved apart.”

He said that African nations had chosen to look forward rather than form nations that looked backwards into history with a dangerous nostalgia. African nations follow the rules of the African Union and the United Nations, not because they are satisfied with the status quo of existing borders, but because they want something greater that is forged in peace. 

This wisdom from Kenya is paramount in analysing the potentially most damaging impact of the Russian war in Ukraine for Africa. If the naked aggression of Russia is seen to succeed in Ukraine, then democracy, freedom and independence of thought is at risk from the covetous actions of dictators anywhere to spark proxy wars to feed their greedy ambitions.

As the war continues to rage in Ukraine, and the toll of human suffering becomes clear, the eyes of all African leaders will be on the conflict, as they endeavour to stop this war through international mediation, and also to prevent such a war from ever breaking out in Africa.